"Experts," shooting from the hip

Any newspaper article, or TV story, would not be complete without the obligatory quotes from "experts." All too often, we have not heard of these experts before, and we have no idea about their credentials to be experts. Usually, they are people who are shooting from the hip for a chance at personal publicity. We should take their advice with some scepticism. Today the papers are full of stories about the new Apple iPhone, with experts being quoted to "prove" it will be successful or a failure. It is clear that many of the quotes are based on little thought or evidence. Instant analysis is demanded by the media to feed their publications, and there are always people who are eager to provide it.

If, as the Tao says, the best leaders are unknown those they lead, how can we find and judge leaders?

According to the Tao, the greatest leaders are unknown to their subjects. When a leader organises matters in harmony with the Tao, the subjects go about their work and believe that their projects are accomplished entirely through their own efforts. Therefore everyone is content.

Next best are leaders that are loved and praised,
then those that are feared.
The worst are hated and despised.

A.G. Laffley of Procter & Gamble may be one of the rare examples of a great leader. He does not thrust himself to the forefront. Colleagues and subordinates have said repeatedly that they do not know how he does it, but he always gets good results. I believe that had he left P&G and left his career to the power of self-promotion, he would not have been so successful. However, he spent his career in a company which carefully and accurately measures results. Most of the "great" leaders promoted by the business press are at best those in the 2nd category. People who are great leaders are likely to go unrecognized and unrewarded.

How can we trust people who will tell us what they think we want to hear?

Many people fear upsetting others, or perhaps fear their anger. It does not matter which. If you have a peer, a subordinate, or someone important in your personal life who does this, watch out. People like these will get you into trouble. Eventually, they will withold some key information from you because you will be upset by it. Then you will make a wrong decision, and you will be hurt far more. Expect everyone around you to tell you the truth, and make sure you do not punish them for telling you what they believe to be true, even if it turns out to be wrong. You need to hear it.

Also, be one of the people who is open and honest with those around you. Do not allow someone to make a poor decision because of lack of information.

Cultural differences we do not see

Ethnocentricism blinds us to differences. It is to some extent obvious that Americans are different from Chinese or Indians, though we often fail to see them accurately, or the similarities. However, we are particularly poor at recognizing differences between nations and cultures with much in common. For example, while the majority of people in the US believe in God and practise a religion (usually Chirstianity), in the UK, a Guardian poll a month ago showed that 82% believe that religion does more harm than good, and 63% describe themselves as not religious. This has a huge impact on many of the activities of daily life. So much in politics, education and business reflects implicit beliefs, that a culturally different underpinning will change how people live.

Some companies are completely clueless

I have written before about how people do not know what they do not know. One interesting example is Indymac Bank's expansion of retail banking. In a market which is becoming eincreasingly competitive, they have decided to expand their retail banking presence. However, in a classic expression of "build it and they will come," the new branches are undifferentiated and all but invisible. They have failed to learn from the existing leaders in the marketplace and do not seem to even know how weak their "stores" are.

Conflict avoidance is not conflict resolution

If there is a disagreement, it does not go away if you simply do not address it. Often, taking the bull by the horms results in a solution and agreement which is far easier than you imagine. Avoiding it is likely to make it worse.