Saturday, July 01, 2006

Which countries will lead the world in 2100?

So often these days, people say that China will lead the world much as the United States led it in 2000 and Great Britain in 1900. The only problem with this is that none of the previous leaders were obvious a century before. In 1900 in seemed that even if Britain would be overtaken, it could equally be by Germany or Brazil or even Japan.

We never seem to learn that predicting the future by projecting the past in a straight line is rarely accurate. So, if China is not the woeld leader, what country will?

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