Saturday, May 17, 2008

What did AdAge say about the future in 1980?

It talked about how different the world of advertising would be in twenty years, but missed almost all the changes. All the articles, even one by Isaac Asimov, only talked about technology and viewing habits that already existed in 1980 - videodiscs, cable TV, ad specialties, and the new science of "advertology." It completely missed all the real changes which have taken place in society and technology - the Internet, fragmentation of the family, energy crises continuing, cell phones, and email. It even did a poor job of prediction ten years out.

We can assume that any predictions we make now will be equally wrong. Even the few who do get it right are viewed as crazy. People are innately conservative.

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